It’s a game of two halves.

From chris-warburton.com

With G7 leaders gathering and the start of the Euro football competition last weekend, we had some echoes of normality once again… only to be dashed at the start of the week with another 4 week extension to lockdown restrictions.

This new variant seems tricky. With high degrees of transmissibility, it is now the dominant strain in the UK. Once in the population, it seems it spreads rapidly, especially amongst without antibodies or not vaccinated or. No wonder the borders are still shut to many countries, although I fear it is only a matter of time before we see the same pattern there too. Rather frustratingly the stalemate between virus and governments seems to be continuing.

Despite this, it is not to say that things are not busy. In fact most people I have spoken to, over the last few weeks, have talked about just how busy they are.

There already seems to be a bounce back, and for those that have saved during the pandemic, it seems like the money is burning a hole in their pockets. Sales of garden renovations, even hot tubs and lazy-spas all seem to have increased.

The question… and it’s big question, is how long will any spending bump continue.

Is this a one-time summer splurge or will this be maintained over the longer term to help with economic recovery?

This was echoed in an excellent talk this week from CICM. It was an economic perspective from an insolvency practitioner’s point of view… we have likely yet to see the full impact… we are only at the start of a chain of events.

  • Furlough finishes
  • Companies have to pay 100% of salaries again
  • These need to be supported by sales
  • If not, businesses will close
  • People need to find new roles
  • If not, there is risk of financial difficulties from economic change in circumstance
  • Arrears and defaults rise

All this takes time…. with a summer spurge Q3 and Q4 are now looking likely the critical landing dates, compounded by potential inflation watch too.

With so many moving parts, all of this can be quite chaotic and as a result unpredictable. We just need to hope the bounceback is stronger than expected and any impacts minimized.

In the meantime summer is here, the football is on, it is time to relax and forget about it for a bit… we have a little more time, the weekend at least 🙂

Have a good weekend everyone.

Other stories of interest this week