Insights ¦ Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence

Published by: Stanford University and NBER
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Key Take Aways

Entry-Level Impact: The proliferation of generative AI is beginning to affect entry-level employment, particularly for workers aged 22–25 in highly AI-exposed occupations.
Employment Decline: Early-career workers in the most AI-exposed roles have experienced a 13% employment decline compared to pre-adoption levels, even after accounting for firm-level shocks.
Cohort Disparity: While overall employment remains strong, young workers in AI-exposed jobs have seen stagnant employment since late 2022, unlike older workers who continue to experience growth.
Automation vs Augmentation: Declines are concentrated in roles where AI automates rather than complements tasks; jobs with more augmentative AI use have stable or increasing employment.
Direct AI Link: Employment reductions persist even after adjusting for firm-specific shocks, suggesting a direct relationship between AI adoption and workforce decline.
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